Another Prognostication about Apple

So it's the end of the financial quarter, and folks are raving about how Apple sold almost as many iPads as Mac computers. And despite the fuss over the antenna, the iPhone 4 looks to be a hit. Momentum should carry Apple through Q3 pretty well. Kids are going back to school, and Macs, iPads and iPhones will certainly be on lots of kids' back-to-school lists. Of course Q4 means the holiday season, so in terms of hardware - iPads, iPods, iPhones, and Macs, Apple should do well for the rest of the year.

A few years ago, we might have looked forward to a major Q1 announcement for MacWorld. Just a few years ago, we saw the unveiing of the MacBook Air at MacWorld, and marveled at its weight and thin profile. But for new products, MacWorld just isn't in the cards any more. As Apple pointed out, it was always a bit silly to introduce new products in January, after the start of the school year and the winter holidays.

So the question is, what will Apple have for us in Q1 of 2011? With the iPhone 4 already 6 months old, and the iPad  some 9 months old, can new faster Mac computers fill in the gap? Or will Apple surprise us again? I have no idea, but there are three scenarios that come to mind:

(1) Hardware: A fix or improvement to unsung hardware that's very significant. Maybe AppleTV will get fixed, or we'll see biometric sensors (that really work) to authenticate access to our devices. Maybe the Nike-iPod thing will go further, with a FitBit acquisition.

(2) Software  & Services: Apple has bought a lot of important IP, from geolocation (Poly9) to AI-enabled services (Siri). Apple doesn't roll out services until they're ready, but everyone knows that they don't rest on past accomplishments. Maybe we'll something there.

(3) Commercial services: Now that Apple has its own ad network, maybe we'll see more revenue flowing through that. Even if we don't, it's possible that the iPad could introduce more traffic to the AppStore than we'd anticipated. And with new iPad owners, we see new first-tim App Store customers coming in every day.

So there you have it, three reasons to not panic that hsving launched the iPad, iPhone 4, and new Mac computers in 2010, Apple will run out of mojo in 2011.

Stay thirsty, my friends.

Can we please stop using these lame examples for geolocation and NFC?

The Next Web has a great article on where Apple is headed with geolocation and Near Field Communications (NFC), and all I can say is, the sooner the better. After all, our smartphones - even our beloved iPhones - are "smart" like Rain Man is "smart." They're amazingly good at doing all kinds of really hard things, but then they simply can't process critical information that (from a human perspective) is far simpler. And then there are the tasks that they simply refuse to attempt or break down when they try.

So that's why I look forward to having a phone that really knows where I am, who I'm near, and what I am there to do. But I have a little rant to go along with this. Can we please stop dragging out coupons and discounts as the default example for geolocation? And while we're at it, can we also stop imagining that we'll toss out our credit and debit card infrastructure and start using NFC-enabled phones to buy things from retailers? Yes, I know that those examples (a) demonstrate what the underlying technology could do in "real world" applications, and (b) are how lots of companies are going to try to apply those technologies.

But those examples are contrived and unimaginative, and worst of all, they just kind of suck from a user experience perspective. We owe it to ourselves to think a bit deeper about what great experiences those technologies will really enable. Mobile advertising can work, and it will work, but only when it becomes a delight and not an interruption. That means doing things that are much more intelligent, creative and exciting than offering 50 cents off a cup of coffee. Sorry, but I either want the coffee or I don't, and your ad just cost me 30 seconds of time that I wanted to spend reading e-mail.

The same thing goes for NFC. In my wallet I have a dozen different ways to pay for that cup of coffee. I don't need another. Of course, it's a different story for unbanked people in other countries, or in use cases where pricing is complex and infrastructure is highly uniform, like Japanese trains. But compared to credit and debit transactions, what value does phone based payments bring to a retailer or its customers? I'll bet that in my lifetime I never buy a cup of coffee in the US with my phone. (If I lose the bet, you can come see me and collect via NFC, by the way.)

OK, time to stop ranting and start thinking about what cool, delightful changes will be driven by better geolocation and NFC in handsets. My guess is that the best applications will begin with the cultivation of people's innate desires - sharing, discovery, convenience and sense of self.

Not fifty cents off a latte.